The current revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have misshaped key oil projections under intense U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers seldom step forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear explosion on future global oil production. The Bush administration’s actions in pressuring the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the possibilities of discovering brand-new reserves have the potential to toss governments’ long-lasting preparation into mayhem.

Whatever the truth, increasing long term international demands appear certain to outstrip production in the next years, specifically given the high and increasing costs of developing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan’s overseas Kashagan and Brazil’s southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will require billions in investments before their first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a situation, additives and substitutes such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing function by stretching beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and rising costs drive this innovation to the forefront, one of the richest potential production areas has been absolutely neglected by investors already - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR’s cotton “plantation,” the area is poised to end up being a significant player in the production of biofuels if sufficient foreign investment can be acquired. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is made mainly from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mainly distilled from corn, Central Asia’s ace resource is a native plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have seen their economies boom because of costs, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing manufacturer of natural gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and reasonably scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian neighbors have mainly prevented their ability to cash in on rising international energy needs up to now. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stay mostly dependent for their electrical requirements on their Soviet-era hydroelectric infrastructure, but their increased need to create winter electrical energy has led to autumnal and winter season water discharges, in turn seriously impacting the agriculture of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these 3 downstream nations do have however is a Soviet-era legacy of farming production, which in Uzbekistan’s and Turkmenistan case was mainly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev’s “Virgin Lands” programs, has actually become a major manufacturer of wheat. Based on my conversations with Central Asian government officials, provided the thirsty needs of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have great appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lower degree Astana for those durable investors going to bet on the future, particularly as a plant native to the region has currently shown itself in trials.

Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is bring in increased clinical interest for its oleaginous qualities, with a number of European and American business currently investigating how to produce it in industrial quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines carried out a historical test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, becoming the very first Asian provider to explore flying on fuel originated from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo’s Haneda Airport. The test was the conclusion of a 12-month evaluation of camelina’s functional performance ability and prospective business viability.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to advise it. It has a high oil content low in saturated fat. In contrast to Central Asia’s thirsty “king cotton,” camelina is drought-resistant and immune to spring freezing, requires less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of specific interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia’s significant wheat exporter. Another perk of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre sown with camelina can produce approximately 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A heap (1000 kg) of camelina will contain 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is lost as after processing, the plant’s particles can be utilized for livestock silage. Camelina silage has a particularly attractive concentration of omega-3 fats that make it an especially great livestock feed candidate that is recently acquiring acknowledgment in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and competes well versus weeds when an even crop is developed. According to Britain’s Bangor University’s Centre for Alternative Land Use, “Camelina could be an ideal low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape.“

Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and hardly a new crop on the scene: historical proof shows it has actually been cultivated in Europe for at least 3 centuries to produce both vegetable oil and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, currently the center of U.S. camelina research study, revealed a wide range of outcomes of 330-1,700 pounds of seed per acre, with oil content varying in between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have actually been identified to be in the 6-8 lb per acre range, as the seeds’ little size of 400,000 seeds per lb can create issues in germination to achieve an optimal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina’s potential might enable Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has deformed the nation’s efforts at agrarian reform given that achieving independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government figured out that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow’s growing fabric industry. The procedure was sped up under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were also purchased by Moscow to plant cotton, Uzbekistan in specific was singled out to produce “white gold.“

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had ended up being self-sufficient in cotton